Pa.’s Senate control up to key races

This piece was originally published in the Philadelphia Inquirer's Currents.

This week we look at the hot races to be decided on Tuesday. What should we be watching and what should we expect on Election Day?

Rooney: In spite of the fact that there are not as many TV spots as we would normally see, and in spite of the fact that there are many uncontested races on the ballot, there are areas of the commonwealth - four races, specifically - that will likely determine control of the state Senate. I think it's going to be very interesting to see where Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tom Wolf can win with a double-digit lead and what impact that will have on these races.

Novak: This election has been sleepy in parts of Pennsylvania and on fire in other parts. Those four state Senate seats are going to make a difference in not only which party controls the Senate, but also who the leaders will be that control the Senate. To that extent, it's almost like what the rest of the country is experiencing with the U.S. Senate seats that are up for grabs in states where Mitt Romney won, not Barack Obama. In those states, incumbent Democrat senators are fighting for their political lives.

Rooney: This is where national and state politics meet. In Pennsylvania, the water's edge happens to be in the state Senate races, which are happening in very different places geographically, and very different places in terms of Pennsylvania politics. Take the two hotly contested races in southwestern Pennsylvania. In one case, you have an endangered incumbent - Sen. Tim Solobay (D.) matched up against newcomer Camera Bartolotta (R.). In another case, you have an open seat pitting State Rep. Deb Kula (D.) against businessman Pat Stefano (R.). In both cases, the president's approval rating is substantially worse in those districts than it is in other parts of the state.

In the east, the president's approval rating is slightly better than in the west and Tom Wolf is doing exceedingly well in the polls. There we have the open seat in Delaware County, where Tom McGarrigle, the Republican, is matched up against Democrat John Kane. And, finally, there is the race between Rep. Mario Scavello (R.) and lawyer Mark Aurand (D.). This Senate district was moved as a result of reapportionment from west to east, where northeastern Pennsylvania and the Lehigh Valley meet.

Usually down-ballot races like these have to factor in the noise that takes place up top, but with the governor's race and the congressional races seemingly foregone conclusions, these races have become battlegrounds themselves. That's rare.

Novak: That same element is driving races for U.S. Senate in such states as Colorado, Arkansas, Louisiana, and North Carolina. There are 11 red states where there are endangered Democratic senators. Those places are white hot. Right now, Pennsylvania has the sleepy feel of an incumbent governor's race, with the exception that the role is reversed and the challenger seems like the inevitable winner. Our contested state Senate seats are mini-versions of these U.S. Senate races, and are where the national mood and the state mood will intersect.

Rooney: Every election comes down to what goes on in the field. What is unique this year is that the field operation is going to be exceedingly important in the down-ballot races. Field programs encompass a lot of people and a lot of work. Here, I believe the Democrats have the advantage. Democrats have a history and a track record of sending folks and resources to where they are needed. In this case, it is not in 17 congressional districts across Pennsylvania. In a state where just a few years ago we would have anywhere between four and six hotly contested congressional races - we have none! Instead, the field operations will be highly concentrated in the places where there is still some doubt, and that's in these state Senate races.

Novak: On Election Day, I am going to be looking to see if there is a national turnout trend that aligns with the national mood. I want to see whether that national trend manifests itself in Pennsylvania, or has it already shown itself in the fact that there aren't any hotly contested congressional seats in Pennsylvania.

Rooney: I'll be watching turnout and early results from the four corners of the state. For example, it's going to be important to know what the Democratic turnout is in Washington, Fayette, and Greene Counties - turnout D. vs. R. - which will say as much about the state Senate majority as will turnout in Southeastern Pennsylvania.

Novak: The other thing to look for is the size of the Republican wave, nationally. Is it a small wave or is it a larger wave, as in 2010? I'm going to be watching those U.S. Senate races in the red states where the Democrats have put a lot of resources and a lot of money. Those races are going to say a lot about the national mood, as well as who runs a better campaign, and I think we are going to see the same thing in our Senate seats here.