Election primer

A look at many of the issues charging Pa.'s gubernatorial race as Election Day gets closer.

This piece was originally published in the Philadelphia Inquirer's Currents.

From now until Nov. 4, Alan Novak and T.J. Rooney will write regularly about the governor's race and other campaigns this year. To begin, they were asked: What can voters expect from candidates this fall, and what should candidates expect from voters.

Novak: Lots of airtime and lots of negative ads. Southeastern Pennsylvania is an important and large voting population. The airwaves are going to be saturated, not just with campaign commercials by gubernatorial campaigns, but by issue-oriented groups, super PAC-types, and also the key House and Senate races. Three of the five Senate races that will determine the majority in the state Senate are occurring in the Philadelphia region: Delaware County, Bucks County, and up in Allentown.

Rooney: I wonder how many spots we're going to see for Gov. Corbett. The next few weeks will be very telling. Corbett starts the fall at a decided deficit. If he's unable to improve his polling numbers, money is going to dry up. If that happens, he's in for a real tough time and that's where you might see fewer commercials than we otherwise expect.

Novak: The big money - the unlimited money - more of it is going to come from outside of the state than from within the state. With the latest polling, that outside money is going to go to Florida, Michigan, and other states. If Tom Corbett can get his polling more competitive, that money continues to come to Pennsylvania.

Rooney: There are very few things that George Soros, Tom Steyer, and the Koch brothers will ever agree on, but they will not spend their money in a race that's not competitive. Corbett has his work cut out to make this race competitive and attract that kind of attention. If he doesn't, it may be game over.

Novak: The most recent polling is a problem for the governor. Tom Wolf has united the Democrat base and is attracting Republican and independent voters. Tom Corbett needs to win back Republicans and attract independent voters quickly. When he does, this race gets competitive. If he doesn't, the one thing I would argue that could assist him is something outside of both campaigns' control: an executive order by President Obama that grants wide amnesty. That could generate greater Republican turnout.

Rooney: I believe we are going to see candidates articulate a message that goes beyond the pure political. Politicians know that there is a real frustration out there born over the inability of government to accomplish big things. Candidates in this cycle are going to talk more about how to get things done. Those are the ones that will be successful.

Novak: Tom Corbett has done a lot of what he said he was going to do in terms of taxation and government spending. Those are positives for him. His problem is he's gotten boxed and defined as cutting education funding. I wish he had gone on the offensive two years ago on this, especially in the Southeast. He has actually increased state spending in education, but there's still a gap between the level it was with the federal stimulus dollars and the level it is now. His opponents very skillfully - but inaccurately - ascribed that as cutting funding. He has to remind voters why they voted for him.

Novak: Sometimes you can't win. And Corbett can't win. He's inartful and ham-handed when he tries to articulate his vision and what's behind his legislation. He's had four years as governor with his party in control and has not gotten anything done. So I am afraid his only retort is to try to take Tom Wolf down and kneecap him in the eyes of the voters.

Novak: The Corbett campaign has to do everything it can to make Tom Wolf the unacceptable alternative. That's why we can expect more negative ads. If taxes are your issue, Tom Wolf is a real problem. Tom Wolf flat-out says he is going to raise taxes. When people realize this, they might think twice.

Rooney: Except that recent polling suggests Corbett is just marginally ahead of Tom Wolf among evangelical voters and gun owners. The governor still has to shore up his base and live to see the middle of September financially. It will require changing the narrative of this race, which will be hard. It's a horrible conundrum. I don't envy them.

Novak: Southeastern Pennsylvania will be a battleground. It is no longer the Republican-dominated vote haven. I'm also interested to see what happens in this cycle in the Lehigh Valley, and up into Monroe and Pike Counties, where the populations are growing and people are more bipartisan in their voting patterns and behaviors. The part of Pennsylvania that continues to vote conservative is the part that is losing populations - and that is Western Pennsylvania.

Rooney: One of the biggest challenges that Democrats face is voter turnout. We have to maintain a level of turnout that will allow us to prevail.

Alan Novak is a former chairman of the Republican Party of Pennsylvania

T.J. Rooney is a former chairman of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party