Debating what debaters did, and what lies ahead

This piece was originally published in the Philadelphia Inquirer's Currents.

This week they look at how Republican Gov. Corbett and Democratic challenger Tom Wolf did in their first debate, and what their next moves should be with five weeks left to campaign.

Novak: Gov. Corbett handled himself well. He came out aggressively defending his record. As governor, he has done exactly what he said he was going to do: hold the line on taxes, reduce state spending, and shed excess government. If we were scoring the debate like a boxing match on points, I would score a victory for the governor. I don't think Tom Wolf hurt himself, and he certainly didn't get knocked out. If anything, in my judgment he was slightly behind.

Rooney: In speaking with Wolf and with those around him, they feel very good about the performance. The bar was set very high. He has a commanding lead in the polls and the debate itself was at the Pennsylvania Chamber of Commerce annual dinner, which attracts 1,800 people who tend to be Republicans. When Democrats go to the chamber debate, it's usually not so good a night. Wolf made it a good night because he was able to talk about his experience in the business world, his acumen starting a business, twice, and building each into a successful enterprise. That has the kind of resonance that Democrats don't usually receive at a chamber dinner.

Novak: Wolf couldn't make mistakes. When you have a lead in the polls like he has, candidates just want to get through debates and get back on the campaign trail. On the other hand, the governor comes out of the debate with an opportunity and advantage. There was a big disparity in the specificity of the candidate's plans. Wolf did not want to get into specifics about how he would do the things he said he would do and how much they are going to cost. Now, for the rest of his campaign, Corbett can draw that contrast, which up until this point we haven't seen. If Corbett is going to make a horse race out of this contest, he needs to draw severe and stark contrasts.

Rooney: You're going to see very different results and very different outcomes in the remaining two debates. It goes back to expectations. The vast majority of people who tuned in to the debate were expecting to see sullen Governor Sour Shoes. They didn't. They saw a more animated Corbett. But in the next two debates, when the governor is forced out of his sweet spot, talking about cutting taxes and playing with Grover Norquist [president of Americans for Tax Reform], it might make him a little less animated and a little more dour.

Novak: The next two debates will be in television studios. Tom Corbett was comfortable last week. I thought he was very relaxed. It will be interesting to see how he handles a more traditional debate setting.

Rooney: Remember, Tom Wolf had the luxury of participating in numerous debates during the primary. The governor hasn't had to debate anybody since the 2010 Democrat governor candidate, Dan Onorato. I know they all hunker down and they prepare well, practicing with surrogates as their opponents. In the next round they are going to need to do a whole lot of preparation.

Novak: Wolf will want to get out of the next debate without making a mistake and maintain his standing. Right now, voters see Wolf as a likable and acceptable alternative to the governor. That's all a challenger to an incumbent with polling issues has to be. Wolf has to come out of these debates not losing all that he's worked for and currently enjoys, while the governor has to make Wolf an unacceptable alternative.

Rooney: An inescapable truth is that Corbett needs to do something to change the dynamic of this race. The unfortunate reality is that debates really aren't the be-all-end-all, unless there is a crazy undefined moment. What really matters is what else is going on in the world around us, which will be more determinative of who wins and who loses come Election Day.

Novak: The next strategic move for Corbett is to draw a clear and resonating contrast between him and Wolf. He needs to say to the voters: "Would you rather have what you can depend on? You know my record. You know my political DNA. It's fiscal responsibility. It's not raising taxes. It's creating a friendly business environment to stimulate job growth in Pennsylvania. That's me. I have that record. Look at Tom Wolf. Look at what he's going to do. He's going to raise your taxes." Everything the governor does now has to be aimed at getting voters to think twice about Wolf.

Rooney: Wolf needs to hold Corbett accountable. During the chamber debate, many people came away with the distinct impression that the governor wasn't a participant in the government for the last 31/2 years. He blamed his problems on a lack of ability to communicate and the fact that he's a lousy politician. But at the end of the day, he has been governor and this election is a referendum on his term.

Alan Novak is a former chairman of the Republican Party of Pennsylvania

T.J. Rooney is a former chairman of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party