A look at the political currents in Pennsylvania

This piece was originally published in the Philadelphia Inquirer's Currents.

This week they discuss how voter sentiment is shaping the political environment.

T.J. Rooney is a former chairman of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party

Alan Novak is a former chairman of the Republican Party of Pennsylvania

Rooney: Pennsylvania politics this election is all over the map. On one hand, we have President Obama, whose approval ratings are under water and that is likely playing a role in some suburban Philadelphia congressional districts. On the other hand, we have what I believe will be a very sound victory for Democrat gubernatorial candidate Tom Wolf, which to date has not translated into any coattails for any of the Democrats campaigning in the [suburban Philadelphia] communities. That makes the results after Nov. 4 wide open to interpretation.

Novak: I don't think any congressional seat will change parties in Pennsylvania. The president's approval numbers are considerably upside down. His policies and the far overreach of the federal government are very unpopular. Those sentiments, coupled with the last two weeks of really depressing news on Ebola and ISIS, seemingly are feeding a no-confidence opinion in the federal government's ability to stop anything.

A recent Fox News poll found that 53 percent of Americans think the country is "going to hell in a handbasket" and 63 percent think the country is on the wrong track. Those numbers could motivate Republican voters by as much as 10 percent to 15 percent, which helps Republican candidates such as Republican Ryan Costello, who is running in the open seat for the Sixth Congressional District [now held by Republican Jim Gerlach]. He can position himself as someone who wants to be part of the solution and not part of the problem.

Rooney: In a few short weeks, moderation may rule the day in the congressional races. Conversely, the exact opposite is going on in the governor's race. Incumbent Tom Corbett is a very conservative Republican who is running on a record, which is ostensibly: "I did what I said I was going to do." Except nobody seems to like the extreme nature of how he went about it and he's paying the price.

Whereas, in the suburban Philadelphia districts, you see what many people would consider mainstream Republicans doing quite well and engendering the support of people who aren't traditional allies to Republicans. The National Education Association and the Pennsylvania State Education Association endorsed Costello. This past week, the painters - the International Union of Pure and Applied Physics - endorsed Republican Congressman Pat Meehan. Now, they are not usual alliances, but the alliance itself reflects the moderate nature of people seeking office. A moderate, mainstream approach to politics - the John Heinz Republican, the Ed Rendell Democrat - may be reappearing in Pennsylvania politics.

Novak: No one has to go hard-core negative. The sentiment is already there. Another week of bad stock-market results, more Ebola victims, and ISIS victories is going to anger some voters, depress other voters. People were fearful about their economic and job situation at the beginning of this election cycle. Now they are fearful for their health and security. This is driving the wrong-track numbers, which isn't good for Democrats.

Rooney: There is this kind of mixed bag heading into Election Day, with a lot of unusual and disparate messages. Look at the war being fiercely waged for control of the state Senate. Moderation is carrying the day. These candidates are talking about education in much different ways than Western Pennsylvania's Rep. Daryl Metcalfe (R). They are talking about the environment in much different ways than Republican Majority Leader Mike Turzai from Pittsburgh. What's really fascinating is when they talk about funding government. More Republicans, especially in the suburbs of Philadelphia, but also in other places, are talking about things like a severance tax. These are Republicans! Maybe it's hopeful optimism on my part, but I believe we are going to see many successful candidates adopting this moderate tone, as opposed to the brickbats and mud that often get slung. It's still politics, but I think on Election Day we are going to see that the successful candidates campaigned more on what they can do than on what's wrong with the other person.

Novak: If they have correctly gauged public sentiment, they don't need to stoke the negative. The negative feelings are already there. They just need to connect to the voter, saying: "I can do better and I can address the issues that matter to you in a bipartisan fashion." But we still have two weeks to see what develops in terms of national sentiment and what that means to the voters. In the battleground Senate races across the country, Real Clear Politics' poll averages show that "red" Republican seats have gotten redder and the Democrat blue numbers have shrunk. I think that separation is tied to national mood and national opinions on the president. It's happening in Pennsylvania, although I don't think it means a sweep for the entire Republican ticket.

Rooney: It's definitely not going to mean a sweep in Pennsylvania. We are likely to find very discerning voters in this election. There is likely to be a tremendous amount of ticket-splitting - and most notably, we will see it in the governor's race.

Novak: Another week of bad stock-market results, another week of Ebola victims, and another week of ISIS victories is going to stoke what is already an angry and fearful electorate. I can't see that as being good for any Democrat and it could mean Republicans take the U.S. Senate and add to the House Republican majority.